Climate engineering could offer an extremely cheap, fast solution to climate change, according to this comprehensive analysis of its costs and benefits.
An Analysis of Climate Engineering as a Response to Climate Change by Dr. Eric J Bickel and Lee Lane shows that we might be able to cancel out this century’s global warming by spending no more than $5.8 billion, and that climate engineering might be able to achieve as much for the planet as carbon cuts at a fraction of the cost.
Three methods of solar radiation management are explored in this research. Solar radiation management involves bouncing sunlight back into space, to avoid warming.
The authors look at stratospheric aerosol insertion (launching material like sulfur dioxide or soot into the stratosphere to mimic the effects of volcanoes, which create a hazy layer scattering and absorbing sunlight); marine cloud whitening (spraying seawater droplets into marine clouds to make them reflect more sunlight); and the deployment of a space-based sunshade (launching many tiny transparent screens into space that would focus a small amount of the sun's light away from Earth).
Air capture focuses on capturing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and securing it in land or sea-based sinks. This technology, according to Dr. Bickel and Lane, is not as promising as solar radiation management from a technical or cost perspective. Dr. Bickel and Lane find that the cost of stratospheric aerosol insertion would be in the magnitude of $230 billion, with benefits fifteen-times higher.
Marine cloud whitening with a fleet of unmanned ships would be extremely cheap: for about $5.8 billion, all of the global warming for the century could be avoided, with benefits adding up to about $20 trillion.
Dr. Bickel and Lane conclude: “the results of this initial benefit-cost analysis place the burden of proof squarely on the shoulders of those who would prevent such research.”
*Picture credit: John MacNeill
Dr. Anne Smith critiques the Analysis Paper by Dr. Bickel and Lane, overlaying their work with a consideration of potential unintended consequences from geoengineering, and extending it by calculating the value of information from the research and development. She also takes a more critical look at the theoretical assumptions underpinning the standard formula for value of information, and finds that they may be inappropriate in a public policy making process. She suggests an alternative value of information formula to match this issue’s role as part of societal decision-making by groups who hold very different sets of probability assumptions.
Dr. Roger Pielke Jr critiques the cost-benefit analysis of climate engineering of Dr. Bickel and Lane. He also summarizes an analysis of the potential role for air capture technologies to play in the decarbonization of the global economy. The idea behind air capture is to take in ambient air, remove the carbon dioxide, and then release the air. Dr. Pielke Jr finds that the costs of air capture would be comparable with major assessments of the costs of responding to global warming by cutting carbon emissions. He concludes that air capture technologies are deserving of a much greater role in global warming policy.
Analysis Papers, written by experts in this field, provide a comprehensive exploration of the costs and benefits of one solution to climate change.
Perspective Papers provide a critique of the assumptions and calculations used in the Analysis Paper, and provide another expert opinion on this solution to climate change.
In addition, The Perspective Paper on Climate Engineering by Dr. Roger A Pielke Jr itself looks at the costs and benefits of a related solution to global warming: air capture.
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Dr. J Eric Bickel
Author of An Analysis of Climate Engineering as a Response to Climate Change. Dr. J. Eric Bickel is an assistant professor in the Graduate Program in Operations Research and Industrial Engineering at The University of Texas at Austin and a fellow in the Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy.
Dr. Anne E Smith
Author of A Perspective Paper on An Analysis of Climate Engineering as a Response to Climate Change. Dr. Anne Smith is Vice President and Practice Leader of Climate & Sustainability at Charles River Associates. She is an expert in environmental policy assessment and corporate compliance strategy planning and has made major analysis contributions to most major air quality policy issues. She has a Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University.
Dr. Roger A Pielke Jr
Author of A Perspective Paper on An Analysis of Climate Engineering as a Response to Climate Change. Dr. Roger A Pielke Jr is a Professor in the Environmental Studies Program at University of Colorado and a Fellow of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences. In 2006, he received the Eduard Brückner Prize for outstanding achievement in interdisciplinary climate research.